a new year begins, the financial media typically is full of speculative
commentary about what the coming 12 months will hold for markets. The
assumption underlying this content is that someone, somewhere has a reliable
The truth, however, is that everyone is guessing. A few guesses turn out to be right. Most turn out to be wrong. And that’s because those making these forecasts fail to account for the random nature of events. Ultimately, it’s not a good way to invest.